Friday, August 18, 2006

Oil is here with bell's on -- the bell curve that is

Oil will not just "run out" because all oil production follows a bell curve. This is true whether we're talking about an individual field, a country, or on the planet as a whole.
Before my father's death he dedicated his career to the oil and gas industry.

While I could spent an entire week on the obvious problems I had with my father's choice, I do appreciate his level of candour regarding his job and his industry.

One of the major lessons I was to learn was that oil really is a finite resource. Before the age of 15 (and because I was a rather haughty teen with fantastic and idealistic ideas) my father sat me down and explained the bell curve.

The bell curve is visual representation of a resource's natural lifespan. Every resource (finite resource) can be charted along a bell curve -- where the resource is cheap and plentiful on the upscope and increasingly scarce and expensive on the down slope. The peak of the curve coincides with the point at which oil is 50% depleted.

OK, so that is a problem in itself, however add into the mix an increasingly population. As the population of all countries increases, so does the demand for oil and it's derivatives. Hence, as oil becomes scarce, the demand for oil increases.

Not a great equation to be working with.

Yet, our government's do not seem to be serious about dealing with the looming oil shortage (and crisis). Rather than investing in alternative fuel resources, our governments (North America in particular) are attempting to find new oil reserves.

This is in complete contrast to the action's of other nations.

Take, for example, Spain's new law that makes solar panels mandatory in all new buildings. Jose Montilla, Spain's Industry Minister, has announced that from next year, anyone who intends to build a home will be obliged to include solar panels in their plans, with the aim of turning Spain from a straggler to a European leader in the use of renewable energy. Spain calculates that solar energy could produce savings of at least $115 (CAN) a year on fuel to heat domestic water supplies per household. The initiative not only saves homeowners money, but also reduces greenhouse gases. While the construction cost of houses may increase, the government is arguing that both short-term and long-term benefits outweigh any additional construction costs.

For more information on Spain's initiative go to: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-1350946,00.html

For more information on the oil bell curve go to:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

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