Monday, October 16, 2006

Public declaration & private diplomacy in an era of rogue dictators

It appears the world is settled on the type of action it condones towards North Korea.

Though the tiny, insular nation, that shares a large border with China, reportedly set off nuclear tests last week, a vote for sanctions was not taken in the United Nations until this past Saturday. While no one person, group or nation would admit it, the delayed response (and the public acknowledgement that North Korea had, in fact, set off nuclear weapons) is the balance between private and public diplomacy.

Since the public posturing of nations (including USA, China, Japan and North and South Korea) is to demand retribution from this rogue nation, it is the private diplomacy that is essential in dealing with such sensitive issues -- a diplomacy that could not occur without the space provided by ambiguity.

For that reason, it was essential that the official stance of each UN-member country not be made public until each of these UN-member countries had a chance to sit in their backrooms -- demanding, conceding and negotiating a resolution to North Korea's bold attempt to become a primary player in international politics.

While not the official reason -- this is why the UN and its member-nations (including China) took days to decide on the unified action. This is why their were rumours and reports that China, Japan and South Korea may not back the sanctions against North Korea. And this is why the UN resolution for economic sanctions was not passed for at least 72 hours after the fall-out of North Korea's nuclear testing.

The sad irony is this is not the first time the world has been pushed to the brink due to nuclear weapons. Who can forget the tense days and nights during the Cuban missile crisis? Or what about the volatile courtship between Pakistan and India that resulted in a nuclear race.

The sad fact is as long as one nation holds the ultimate destructive weapon (the nuclear bomb) all nations -- that want to play in the big leagues -- will be tempted to participate in the ownership of that destructive power. The scary fact is that not all of these nations are led by leaders that want the best for their citizens.

While the dangerous power play between North Korea and the world has caused division amongst UN-member nations -- the unified decision, made on Saturday, is an effort to try and curb both the sad and the scary fact; it is an effort to punish Kim Jong II (the North Korean leader) for wanting to become a major world player and it is an attempt to curb the ambitions of a dictator that appears unconcerned and apathetic to the consequences his actions may have on his citizens.

In the next week or so, we will begin to see whether or not the private diplomacy that is frantically taking place in the backrooms and boardrooms of our nations will in fact lend credence to the public declarations and sanctions that were decided over the weekend.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Whenever I try to envision some alternate measure -- something, anything other than WAR -- to create a forum for non-military dispute settlement, I keep landing back on what would essentially be the UN... in principle. But the oddly prescient movie Team America highlighted just how flaccid UN-style diplomacy (or at least the current implementation of it) can be, when Hans Blix 'threatened' none other than Kim Jong-Il with a very terse letter explaining how angry the UN would be with him for using nukes. Sanctioning an impoverished-though-stubbornly-so state is surely a louder message than simple blacklisting, but, man alive, does the process ever feel ineffectual. From a dramatic point of view, Kim is the only one demonstrating any kind of chutzpah on behalf of his own ideals.

K-Dough said...

China is the larger problem here. They won't adhere to UN demands that shipments to Pyongyang are investigated for arms trade.

Anyone want to take a guess at why?

Unless the world (read: the US) can convince them to do so, nothing anyone does will have teeth.

It is a very sensitive time in the East Asian sphere right now. A new pro-conciliation PM just took power in Japan (Abe)and is meeting with the Chinese for the first since 2001 when Koizumi did.

Should be a very interesting next couple of months.